🔗 Share this article

Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that divided the nation and unleashed disorder, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is prepared.

That conveys the caution from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly contentious and seismic public vote.

"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."

Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion

The team have examined the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.

"What haunts everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.

"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."

Constitutional Provision

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say that moment is imminent, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a national vote.

Lack of Serious Debate

Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, said McBride.

"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in academia but very few elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves with the basics. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Volume's Strategy

In the publication, neither author advocates unity or the current situation. They authors two articles that seek impartiality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and societal data, previous instances and constitutional models.

Arguments cover identity markers, levies, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and encourage conversation.

"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Debate implies an recognition of the notion that there might be good arguments on each side."

Parallel Votes

A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens claim they prefer unity but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.

"The Irish government should work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.

Possibility of Public Vote

McBride considers a national vote in his generation is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid points, he commented. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will ultimately lose but both parties has possesses valuable insights to learn from the opposing viewpoints."

Call for Broader Discussion

Westminster needed to engage with the debate, said O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."